DryShips (DRYS) earns an upgrade. Why?

I read a short post on shipping upgrades and downgrades.  Here is the short post:

Shares of dry bulk shipping firm DryShips (DRYS) are soaring 3% after the stock earned its second upgrade this week. Sterne Agee raised its rating on the stock to “buy” from “neutral” with a $6 price target, which is more than 50% above where the shares currently trade. The research firm said the coming spin-off of the DryShips ocean rig unit could unlock value for shareholders.

The news isn’t doing much to help the fortunes of the Dry Bulk Shipping Stocks Index, which is down 1%. Earlier this week, Wells Fargo upgraded DryShips to “outperform” from “market perform” with a price target range of $5-$6.

Shares of Diana Shipping (DSX) are tumbling 5% on news of a Credit Suisse downgrade. The bank pared its rating on Diana to “underperform” from “outperform,” saying it expects supply to outpace demand in the dry bulk shipping market. The bank slashed its price target on Diana to $8 from $15 and the new price target is more than 25% below where the stock currently trades.

Looking at other Index members, Safe Bulkers (SB) is up 1% while Navios Maritime Holdings (NM) is up about half a percent. Eagle Bulk Shipping (EGLE) and Excel Maritime Carriers (EXM) are both lower by 1%.

Investors can track the Dry Bulk Shipping Stocks Index for performance trends and a suite of other metrics at tickerspy.com.

I like Safe Bulkers, but I like to check out the competition.  So I decided to take a quick look at DryShips.  Here is what I found.

DryShips (DRYS)

Market price: $4.20

Shares: 399.14 million

Market capitalization: $1.68 billion

Dividend record: no dividend since 2008.  The dividend was cut entirely in 2009.

Earning power: $0.16 average earnings @ 399.14 million shares

Recent EPS: $0.63

(earning adjusted for changes in capitalization; massive issuance of new shares since 2006)

            EPS       Net inc.             Adj. EPS

2006     $1.75    $57 M                $0.14

2007     $13.40  $478 M              $1.22

2008     ($8.11) ($361 M)           ($0.90)

2009     ($0.13) ($27 M)             ($0.07)

2010     $0.61    $173 M              $0.43

Five year average EPS is $0.16

Value price territory below 12 times average earnings = $1.97

Speculative price territory above 20 times average earnings = $3.20

DRYS trades at 26.25 times average earnings.  This is very speculative.

Balance sheet: Improving, mostly from issuance of new stock equities

Book value per share: $10.43

Price to book value: 0.40 (this is very good)

Current ratio: 0.72 (over 2.0 is good)

Quick ratio: 0.24 (over 1.0 is good)

Conclusion: no dividend, puny earning power, and a balance sheet based on stock issuance.  No thanks.  Chose the high dividend stocks Safe Bulkers instead.

Disclosure: I don’t own DryShips (DRYS) or Safe Bulkers (SB), but I want to own SB.

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