TIP OF THE WEEK: The Federal Reserve Is Not Holding Down the FED Funds Rate, But I Know Who Is.

The Federal Reserve Is Not Holding Down the FED Funds Rate, But I Know Who Is.

Jason Brizic

February 10^th, 2011

The Federal Reserve pretends to control interest rates through the use the FED funds rate.  http://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm

I see this all the time in financial articles.  Pick any of these articles (http://tinyurl.com/7vurwdx) and you will see moronic language like this:

“Federal Reserve officials said they expect short-term interest rates to stay close to zero "at least through late 2014." The Fed has been trying to give more explicit guidance on what it expects in the future as part of a broader move to greater transparency.”

The FED claims that it is holding this key interest rate low until at least 2014 using the federal funds target rate.  Here is the definition of the FED funds rate from its Wikipedia entry:

In the United States, the federal funds rate is the interest rate at which depository institutions actively trade balances held at the Federal Reserve, called federal funds, with each other, usually overnight, on an uncollateralized basis. Institutions with surplus balances in their accounts lend those balances to institutions in need of larger balances. The federal funds rate is an important benchmark in financial markets.^[1][2]

The interest rate that the borrowing bank pays to the lending bank to borrow the funds is negotiated between the two banks, and the weighted average of this rate across all such transactions is the federal funds effective rate.

The federal funds target rate is determined by a meeting of the members of the Federal Open Market Committee which normally occurs eight times a year about seven weeks apart. The committee may also hold additional meetings and implement target rate changes outside of its normal schedule.

The commercial bankers (aka depository institutions) have decided not to loan out all the money the FED created for them during the bailouts of 2008-2009.  They are holding over $1.5 trillion dollars in excess reserves.

Therefore, they don’t need to make overnight loans to one another to satisfy the legal reserve requirements. These bankers are scared to make loans in this horrible economic environment.  I don’t blame them for being scared.  They have decided to park the money back at the FED and the FED is paying them 0.25% interest to store it for them.  This has caused the federal funds effective rate to drop to 0%. 

The FED could get the banks to lend the $1.5 trillion dollars into the economy by imposing a fee on excess reserves.  But that would create hyperinflation in the money supply and prices would rise over 100% in a few months.  The FED doesn’t want that to happen, so they pretend to be in control of the federal funds effective rate when the terrified bankers really are.  The bottom line is that there will be no economic recovery until bankers increase their lending.  That means we will experience a double-dip recession regardless of what happens in Europe or China.  I’m waiting for much lower stock prices to buy high dividend stocks with earning power and strong balance sheets.

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