I wonder what Wunderlich Securities analysts are smoking? These people are obviously devotees to Keynesian economics. They believe that printing money to buy US Treasuries or agency MBS will only make the economic crisis worse later and destroy AGNC’s profitability. The Federal Reserve is attempting to paper over the problem they created. AGNC’s liabilities are real, but their asset values must be questioned. The book value of AGNC is bogus. I wrote about this recently:
Anyone who assumes that AGNC’s book value as stated in their financial reports is trustworthy will be sorely mistaken when the next financial crisis hits. The loss of book value can be caused by several factors. They will happen. It is just a matter of time. The laws of economics assure it.
The structural problem in the world financial system remain unfixed. Keynesian central bankers are inflating wildly forestall the day of reckoning. The next financial crisis will destroy MBS REITs profitability and book values. Enjoy the high dividend yields while they last.
So be warned that there is trouble on the horizon for the MBS high dividend stocks and plan your exit accordingly. Annaly Capital Management (NLY) has decreased its dividend during the last two quarters. I expect AGNC to do the same.
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Wunderlich Securities has a research report on housing finance and mortgage REITs. In the note, Wunderlich mentions American Capital Agency Corp. (NASDAQ: AGNC).”
In a note to clients, Wunderlich writes, "Market concerns over the pending termination of QE2 pressured the mortgage REITs. Though we believe the homeowner lacks the financial flexibility to carry the economy out of the ongoing sluggish economy, we do expect that interest rates could tend to rise through May and the end of this round of easing. At the same time, we believe that easing will continue, though perhaps in different forms. For example, a policy to keep mortgage rates low could be executed through purchases of agency MBS, which could sustain liquidity in the housing finance secondary market. Higher benchmark rates could put pressure on book value and tighten spreads, but we believe that relatively high dividends in our coverage universe will be sustainable. With dividends providing price support, we expect the group to stage a slow recovery to an average 15% premium to trailing book value."”
Shares of AGNC lost 17 cents on Friday to close at $28.53, a loss of 0.6%.Read more: http://www.benzinga.com/analyst-ratings/analyst-color/11/04/1010248/wunderlich-securities-discusses-housing-finance-and-mort#ixzz1JtQ8Nw1C
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