Wednesday, November 30, 2011

Nigel Farage Nails the Eurocrats for the Disaster They Have Caused. He is the Ron Paul of Europe.

The Eurozone will breakup peacefully or there will be massive strife.  Neither outcome is good for the people who live in the USA, Europe, or Asia.  Nigel Farage is the Ron Paul of Europe.  He has been warning the Eurocrats for years about the disaster they are causing just like Ron Paul has in the USA.

There will be opportunities to buy high dividend stocks with safety of principal near the bear market lows.  The Euro will implode and take markets much lower than they are today.  Don’t believe the hype coming from the Eurocrat’s press releases and summits.  Don’t risk your savings on the ex-communist and present socialist pipedreams of a politically and fiscally unified Europe.

http://www.garynorth.com/public/8789.cfm

Subscribe today for free at www.myhighdividendstocks.com/feed to discover high dividend stocks with earning power and strong balance sheets, so that you can make good purchases near the bear market lows.

Be seeing you!

Tuesday, November 29, 2011

62 Million Reasons Why Mortgage REIT Investors Should Be Scared

There are actually 62,000,001 reasons not to invest in mortgage REITs like American Capital Agency Corp. (AGNC) and Annaly Capital Management (NLY).  The first reason is that the USA and the world are slipping back into recession.  This will increase the speed of prepayments of mortgages.  Increase prepayment speeds destroys leveraged earnings in mortgage REITs.  Need proof, then check this out.  The ECRI has an amazing track record.  Ignore them at your financial peril.

http://www.advisorperspectives.com/dshort/updates/ECRI-Weekly-Leading-Index.php

Secondly, this article from Minneapolis attorney Bill Butler on LewRockwell.com should bring fear into the hearts of all mortgage REIT investors worldwide.  Here are the other 62 million reasons not to invest in mortgage REITs.  This is a long article, but it shows how nefarious Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac really are.  Mortgage REITs buy their agency securities from these crooks.

http://lewrockwell.com/butler-b/butler-b14.1.html

DISCLOSURE – I don’t own AGNC or NLY.

Subscribe today for free at www.myhighdividendstocks.com/feed to discover high dividend stocks with earning power and strong balance sheets.

Be seeing you!

Sunday, November 27, 2011

Yet Another Reason Not to Buy Amazon.com (AMZN) Stock

More proof that Amazon.com (AMZN) needs beta-testers more than it needs to pay a dividend.

* * * * * * * * * *
Amazon Foul-Ups: Google Access
Gary North
Printer-Friendly Format

Nov. 26, 2011

To give you an example of why Amazon needs more full-time beta-testers to search the site daily, consider this.

Someone searches Google for Amazon. He gets this:


   

He then wants to find out about Amazon Instant Video. He clicks the link. He gets this:


   
This can't be right. So, he clicks again. The same. And again. He gets this:


   
Enough said.

* * * * * * * * * *
Click here to read my other articles on why not to buy Amazon.com (AMZN) stock:

Subscribe today for free at www.myhighdividendstocks.com/feed to discover high dividend stocks with earning power and strong balance sheets.  Guess what?  Amazon.com (AMZN) is not one of them.

Be seeing you!

Another Reason Not to Buy Amazon.com (AMZN) Stock

Here is another reason not to buy overpriced Amazon.com (AMZN) stock that is trading at over 120 times it five year average adjusted earnings per share.

* * * * * * * * * *
Amazon: "We Don't Make No Stinking Mistakes!"
Gary North

Nov. 26, 2011

I ordered an Amazon Kindle touch. I am planning to convert several dozen of my books into Kindle-readable format, so that I can sell them on-line. I want to see how the touch screen works.

I ordered the $99 version. But I changed my mind within five minutes. So, I canceled the order. Because I was given the option of explaining why, I told them it was because I was upgrading to a more expensive model: $149.

It was told on-screen that the order was canceled.

On Friday, November 25, I received two Kindles. They had no instruction manuals. They came with no packing slips/receipts. There was a card in each of them: getting to know your Kindle. The card is the size of a playing card. It tells how to charge the unit's battery. The card is model-unspecific.

I could not tell which was which. The only way that I finally found out was that I charged their batteries. At that point, one of them did reveal on its screen that it was the 3G unit. Otherwise, there was no way to tell.

To send it back, the return policy screen said to include the packing slip. There was no packing slip.


   
I am writing this article as a warning. Amazon's cancellation software doesn't always work. So, take care when you order something and then cancel within the allotted 30 minutes. You may not get 30 minutes.

The software should work. This is not just the cancellation software. For more evidence that Amazon needs full-time site beta-testers, click here: http://www.garynorth.com/public/8785.cfm

I joined Amazon Prime to save money on shipping. That's good. I applaud. But I received no welcome note telling me how I can view the free streaming movies or where the titles are listed. I have tried to find the list of free rental books. No success.

I am in the on-line order business. When a new member subscribes, my system sends him a detailed Welcome letter showing how things work and what the benefits are. Amazon should do the same. There should be a Welcome Prime Members page. There should be a link to this in the Welcome letter. It should be easily found by searching the site. If it's there, I could not find it. I was sold services that I cannot figure out how to access.

Then there are the various Kindle models. There should be a page of YouTube embedded videos on all aspects of using each of the various Kindle models. This is what generates business: users who use the service. Nothing digital is ever intuitive. This is obvious. Videos are the best way to teach new users. Amazon sells video storage space to users (S3). It lets sellers embed short videos on its sales pages. Yet the company is lackadaisical about using easily accessed how-to videos to make every aspect of its services clear to new users.

These are basic rules of business success. Amazon a big company. It needs beta-testers to keep reviewing all aspects of the site systematically all the time.

Entropy is forever. Things fall apart. It takes time and money to hold them together. There are parts of Amazon that are visibly falling apart.

* * * * * * * * * *

Link to original article: http://www.garynorth.com/public/8778.cfm

Click here to read my previous article on Amazon: http://www.myhighdividendstocks.com/no-dividend-stocks/retailers-day-three-amazon-com-amzn

Subscribe today for free at www.myhighdividendstocks.com/feed to discover high dividend stocks with earning power and strong balance sheets.

Be seeing you!

Sarkozy's Influential Half Brother Counts the European Beans and it's Not Good News ((State of the Economy, Federal Reserve Policy))

Subscribe today for free at www.myhighdividendstocks.com/feed to discover high dividend stocks with earning power and strong balance sheets.

Be seeing you!

But Is Everything Gonna Be All Right?

But Is Everything Gonna Be All Right?

by Ron Holland
The Daily Bell

Previously by Ron Holland: The European Union Uber Alles

 

  

"How much pain have cost us the evils that have never happened." ~ Thomas Jefferson

Worrying about the many economic threats in the news today really is a waste of time. So many people come up to me depressed, concerned and frozen into a total inaction and paralysis about domestic politics, foreign affairs, the dollar and the debt saying what are we going to do?

My answer is to quit worrying, take sound preparations and then get on with your life. Every generation and nation have had their trials and tribulations, success and failures and although today looks eerily like the 1930’s, this too will pass.

Although I’ve been retired from individual consulting for some time (still work with corporate clients) I receive a large number of inquiries from readers and former clients as well as current conferences attendees and they all ask what is going to happen? Will the dollar and US sovereign debt crash, what about the European Union and their problems, gold, oil and the scary situation in the Middle East?

They never ask whether congress or the US political system will get their act together "they know the answer" and except for the Ron Paul campaign everyone has basically given up on government solutions to the threats facing us today. The real underlying question from everyone is simply "Is everything going to be all right?"

A simple answer is despite positive assurances from Wall Street, Washington and the EU or the negative forecasts from doomsday prophets, no one really knows. While all the experts have opinions, as this is what experts are paid to do, the western world is dealing with such a complex series of problems now all at once, we really are in uncharted territory.

Read the rest of the article here: http://lewrockwell.com/holland/holland54.1.html

Subscribe today for free at www.myhighdividendstocks.com/feed to discover high dividend stocks with earning power and strong balance sheets.

Be seeing you!

Successful investor decimates socialist BBC interviewer

Kyle Bass defends the free market against a hostile BBC interviewer who throws the Keynesian playbook at him.  They debate Europe's soverign debt crisis, Germany's predicament, the role of speculation, Japan's coming crisis, and gold.

Subscribe today for free at www.myhighdividendstocks.com/feed to discover high dividend stocks with earning power and strong balance sheets.

Be seeing you!

Thanksgiving and Marginal Utility by Gary North

Thanksgiving and Marginal Utility

by Gary North
by Gary North

O give thanks unto the LORD; for he is good: for his mercy endureth for ever. O give thanks unto the God of gods: for his mercy endureth for ever. O give thanks to the Lord of lords: for his mercy endureth for ever (Psalm 136:1—3)

This phrase appears in many of the psalms, but when you find the same phrase three times in a row, you can safely conclude that the writer was trying to make a point, and he thought the point was important. I know of no passage in the Bible where any other phrase appears three times in succession.

Thanksgiving Day is an old tradition in the United States. Although it was not the first such thanksgiving feast, the holiday had its origins in Plymouth Colony, in the fall of 1621, when the Pilgrims who had survived the first year invited Chief Massasoit to a feast, and he showed up with 90 braves and five deer. The feast lasted three days.

There had been a thanksgiving day of prayer and a feast in Maine in 1607. The tiny colony was abandoned a year later. There had also been a thanksgiving service inJamestown in 1610, but it did not involve a feast.

The first official Thanksgiving Day was celebrated on June 29, 1676 in Charlestown, Massachusetts, across the Charles River from Boston. But Gov. Jonathan Belcher had issued similar proclamations in Massachusetts in 1730 and in New Jersey in 1749. George Washington proclaimed a day of thanksgiving on October 23, 1789, to be celebrated on Thursday, November 27. In 1863, Abraham Lincoln officially restored it as a wartime measure. The holiday then became an American tradition. It became law in1941.

Lincoln was a strange contradiction religiously. He was a religious skeptic, yet he invoked the rhetoric of the King James Bible — accurately — on many occasions. His political rhetoric, which had been deeply influenced by his reading of the King James, was often masterful. For example, when he spoke of the cemetery of the Gettysburg battlefield as "this hallowed ground," using the King James word for holy, as in "hallowed be thy name," he was seeking to infuse the battle of Gettysburg with sacred meaning — a use of religious terminology that was as morally abhorrent as it was rhetorically successful. It is the sacraments that are sacred, not monuments to man's bloody destructiveness. In that same year, 1863, he used biblical themes in his October 3 Thanksgiving Day proclamation.

It is the duty of nations as well as of men to own their dependence upon the overruling power of God; to confess their sins and transgressions in humble sorrow, yet with assured hope that genuine repentance will lead to mercy and pardon; and to recognize the sublime truth, announced in the Holy Scriptures and proven by all history, that those nations are blessed whose God is the Lord.

He went on, in the tradition of a Puritan Jeremiad sermon, to attribute the calamity of the Civil War to the nation's sins, conveniently ignoring the biggest contributing sin of all in the coming of that war: his own steadfast determination to collect the national tariff in Southern ports.

In his proclamation, he made an important and accurate theological point.

We have been the recipients of the choisest bounties of heaven; we have been preserved these many years in peace and prosperity; we have grown in numbers, wealth and power as no other nation has ever grown.

But we have forgotten God. We have forgotten the gracious hand which preserved us in peace and multiplied and enriched and strengthened us, and we have vainly imagined, in the deceitfulness of our hearts, that all these blessings were produced by some superior wisdom and virtue of our own. Intoxicated with unbroken success, we have become too self-sufficient to feel the necessity of redeeming and preserving grace, too proud to pray to the God that made us.

This observation leads to the same question that Moses raised long before Lincoln's proclamation: Why is it that men become less thankful as their blessings increase?

Less than a decade after Lincoln's proclamation, three economists came up with the theoretical insight that provides an answer.

Marginal Utility Theory

In the early 1870s, Carl Menger, William Stanley Jevons, and Leon Walras simultaneously and independently discovered the principle of marginal utility. Their discovery transformed economic analysis.

They observed that value, like beauty, is subjectively determined. Value is imputed — a familiar Calvinist theological concept — to scarce resources by the acting individual. Other things remaining equal, including tastes, the individual imputes less value to each additional unit of any good that he receives as income. This is the principle of marginal utility.

This can be put another way. We can say that each additional unit of any resource that a person receives as income satisfies a value that is lower on that individual's subjective scale of value. He satisfied the next-higher value with the previous unit of income.

This provides a preliminary solution to the original question. I call this solution the declining marginal utility of thankfulness. People look at the value of what they have just received as income, and they are less impressed than they were with the previous unit of income. They focus on the immediate — "What have you done for me lately?" — rather than the aggregate level of their existing capital. They conclude, "What's past is past; what matters most is whatever comes next."

Modern economic theory discounts the past to zero. The past is gone; it is not a matter of human action. Whatever you spent to achieve your present condition in life is no longer a matter of human action. The economist calls this lost world "sunk costs."

There is a major problem in thinking this way. It is the problem of saying "thank you." The child is taught to say "thank you." He is not told to do this because, by saying "thank you," he is more likely to get another gift in the future. He is taught to say "thank you" as a matter of politeness.

I am sure that there is some University of Chicago-trained economist out there who is ready to explain etiquette as a matter of self-interest: "getting more in the future for a minimal expenditure of scarce economic resources." And, I must admit, people who never say "thank you" do tend to receive fewer gifts. Or, as Moses put it, "And thou say in thine heart, My power and the might of mine hand hath gotten me this wealth. But thou shalt remember the LORD thy God: for it is he that giveth thee power to get wealth, that he may establish his covenant which he sware unto thy fathers, as it is this day" (Deuteronomy 8:17—18). But Moses added an "or else" clause: "And it shall be, if thou do at all forget the LORD thy God, and walk after other gods, and serve them, and worship them, I testify against you this day that ye shall surely perish" (verse 19). Gary Becker would no doubt put it differently, but the point regarding reduced future income is the same: lower. Maybe way, way lower.

The problem is, we look to the present, not to the past. We look at the marginal unit — the unit of economic decision-making — and not at the aggregate that we have accumulated. We assume that whatever we already possess is well-deserved — merited, we might say — and then we focus our attention on that next, hoped-for "util" of income.

As economic actors, we should recognize that the reason why we are allocating our latest unit of income to a satisfaction that is lower on our value scale is because we already possess so much. We are awash in wealth. We are the beneficiaries of a social order based on private ownership and free exchange, a social order that has made middle-class people rich beyond the wildest dreams of kings a century and a half ago. Or, as P. J. O'Rourke has observed, "When you think of the good old days, think one word: dentistry."

About half of the Pilgrims who arrived in Plymouth in 1620 were dead a year later. The Indians really did save the colony by showing the first winter's survivors what to plant and how to plant it in the spring of 1621. The Pilgrims really did rejoice at that festival. They were lucky — graced, they would have said — to be alive.

So are we. Ludwig von Mises wrote in Human Action (VIII:8) that social Darwinism was wrong. The principle of the survival of the fittest does not apply to the free market social order. The free market's division of labor has enabled millions of people to survive — today, billions — who would otherwise have perished.

So, give thanks to God today, even if your only god is the free market. You did not obtain all that you possess all by yourself. The might of your hands did not secure it for you. A little humility is in order on this one day of the year. Yes, even if you earned a Ph.D. at the University of Chicago.

November 24, 2005

Gary North [send him mail] is the author of Mises on Money. Visit http://www.freebooks.com.

Copyright © 2005 by LewRockwell.com. Permission to reprint in whole or in part is gladly granted, provided full credit is given.

Link to the original article: http://www.lewrockwell.com/north/north22.html

Wednesday, November 23, 2011

MF Global Heist by Cathy Cuthbert

To: James W. Giddens, Trustee, SIPA Liquidation of MF Global, Inc. and Martin Glenn, United States Bankruptcy Judge

From: Cathy Cuthbert

RE: MF Global Heist

I am a lucky, former MF Global client. Unfortunately, I'm not a multi-billionaire who got the memo. I had a modest account that was supplying me with a modest livelihood, when suddenly one Monday afternoon, my account was frozen, my livelihood was essentially gone, and four years worth of trading profits vanished into cyber space. You might be interested to know that sitting on my desk as I write is an application for a part-time, seasonal position stocking shelves at the local Rite-Aid. Then again, maybe not…

Let's try a thought experiment. Suppose I worked at a little bank in Anywhere, USA and it just so happened that I had a few peccadilloes I needed to clean up. So I borrowed just a tad of money from a few clients' accounts without it showing on their statements or anything -- don't want to alarm the little tykes -- intending all along to of course return the money 'cause ya know, I'm good for it, but somehow I just couldn't come up with the bucks fast enough and somebody found out. Do you suppose I could just resign, go home and suck a sore paw while someone else looked high and low, under my desk, in my filing cabinet, maybe pieced together my shredded docs hoping to find out where, oh where the money went?

Don't be ridiculous. Not only would I immediately be tased, hand cuffed and thrown into the slammer, hard evidence or no, but the money would be very quickly found since there is not one thin dime that passes between accounts in all of the entire USA that isn't thoroughly and incessantly tracked anywhere and everywhere it goes. Not one thin dime. You fellas know it, I know it, but worse for you, the whole world knows it and I don't have to tell you they are all watching.

Should I remind you that the key factor in any financial market is the belief of all the participants that the market is mostly fair? Oh, please, don't call me naïve. I am well aware that futures trading is a negative sum game, and that there are plenty of shenanigans going on with bad fills, running stops and the like. That's ok, though, since it is petty theft and we can figure out ways to stay in the game regardless. But what everybody needs to know is that nobody is going to clean out our accounts. We need to be assured that flagrant grand theft is simply out of the question. If the idea were to become credible that anyone's account -- or, as in this case, everyone's accounts -- can be stolen with impunity and with no recourse for the aggrieved, nobody in his right mind would be in the futures market.

You can obfuscate with legal mumbo jumbo about how depositing money into a futures account makes me an unsecured creditor, but I can assure you that you don't want to go in that direction. Here's why. If you use that excuse to pay off the Big Boys by letting them cut ahead of us clients in bankruptcy due to our status as unsecured creditors, what does that mean for my account at the friendly, neighborhood Bank of America? Steal from us MF Global clients, and the hoi polloi, who are already slowly but surely waking up to the banking scam, just might figure out that they, too, are unsecured creditors every time they deposit their paychecks.

Yes, Jimmy and Marty, you are staring in the face of not just a run on the futures markets, but a run on the banks.

Let's stop pretending that you don't know where the money is. Corzine got a margin call from the Big Boys and paid it. So claw it back. Yes, it's that simple. A mere $600 million is not going to solve their multi-billion dollar problems, anyway. While you're waiting for the clawback, you can make all the clients' accounts whole with funds from SIPC if you have to. Forget this pathetic 60% recovery of collateral. Nothing less than 100% will do. And don't forget to order Corzine his orange jump suit. Either he bunks with Madoff or no one will believe that this can't happen again.

So here's the deal. You can be the heroes or you can be the goats. You can take the high ground, convince the Big Boys that they have gone too far for their own good and return the futures markets to some semblance of reliability, or you could be the ones to kick the last prop out from under the vestiges of capitalism and send the world spiraling at an ever accelerating pace into a fascist future.

Sounds like a no-brainer to me.
 
 
* * * * * * * * * * * *
Subscribe today for free at www.myhighdividendstocks.com/feed to discover high dividend stocks with earning power and strong balance sheets.
 
Be seeing you!

Retailers day three: Amazon.com (AMZN)

On Monday I looked at Wal-Mart (WMT) and on Tuesday I examined Target Corp. (TGT).  Today I will peer under the hood of Amazon.com (AMZN).  I can tell you now that I don’t like what I see.

Amazon.com (AMZN)

Share price: $190.07

Shares: 454.75 million

Market capitalization: $86.434 billion

Bonds: Amazon has no outstanding bonds.

DIVIDEND RECORD – That’s easy; there is none.  Amazon has never paid a dividend.

Image002

EARNING POWER - $1.55 per share @ 454.75 million shares

(earnings adjusted for changes in capitalization – Amazon has slowly added a few million shares over the years)

                        EPS       Net inc.             Shares               Adj. EPS

2006                 $0.45    $190 M              424 M                $0.42

2007                 $1.12    $476 M              424 M                $1.05

2008                 $1.49    $645 M              432 M                $1.42

2009                 $2.04    $902 M              442 M                $1.98

2010                 $2.53    $1,152 M           456 M                $2.53

--------------------------------------------------------------------------

2011Q1             $0.44    $201 M              454.75 M           $0.44

2011Q2             $0.41    $191 M              454.75 M           $0.41

2011Q3             $0.14    $93 M                454.75 M           $0.14

2011Q4 (est)      http://www.forbes.com/sites/josephhargett/2011/10/26/amazon-com-plunges-after-forecasting-potential-4q-loss/

Five year average adjusted earnings (2006-2010) was $1.48 per share.  This will be slightly lower with a 2011 reduction in EPS.

Consider contrarian buying below $11.84 (8 times avg. adjusted EPS)

Consider value buying below $17.76 (12 times avg. adjusted EPS)

Consider speculative selling above $29.60 (20 time avg. adjusted EPS)

Amazon.com is trading at 128 times average adjusted earnings.  This is insanely SPECULATIVELY priced.  A 4th quarter 2011 loss will devastate the stock price.

BALANCE SHEET – Shareholder equity has started to stagnate.  Amazon.com shares are speculatively overpriced for the equity they actually possess.  New Amazon investors are paying over 11 times the total equity per share.  The price to book value ratio should by down around 1 or 2 for something resembling value investing.

Image006

Book value per share: $17.08

Price to book value: 11.26 (this is very bad)

Current ratio: 1.33 (Okay, over 2.0 is good)

Quick ratio: 0.70 (Okay, over 1.0 is good)

CONCLUSION – Amazon.com is speculatively priced at over 128 time average adjusted earnings.  The company pays no dividend and has never paid a dividend.  It has an average adjusted earning power of $1.48 per share.  I wouldn’t even consider this stock until it drops to below $17.76 which is 12 times average adjusted earnings.  The balance sheet is okay, but the stock is way overpriced.  This company might be a good stock to short in this declining market (especially if it loses money in the 4th quarter of 2011).  Wal-Mart and Target both provide superior rewards with less risk of principal going forward.  People that are going long on Amazon.com right now are insane.

Image009

DISCLOSURE – I don’t own Amazon.com (AMZN) stock.

Subscribe today for free at www.myhighdividendstocks.com/feed to discover high dividend stocks with earning power and strong balance sheets.

Be seeing you!

German Pope, Italian Central Banker

Should German pay for the PIIGS?  Hell no.  Watch this short video to understand why not.

http://news.bbc.co.uk/2/hi/programmes/hardtalk/9639507.stm

The European soverign debt crisis will not be resolved by summits and press releases.  The world stock markets will decline greatly.  Specific creditors need to lose their shirts to liquidate the bad debts of the PIIGS.  That would be the free market in action.  There is no free market in the world right now.

This is why I’ve mostly been out of the market since October 2008.  There will be many high dividend stocks on sale in the near tearm future.

Subscribe today for free at www.myhighdividendstocks.com/feed to discover high dividend stocks with earning power and strong balance sheets.

Be seeing you!

Tuesday, November 22, 2011

Retailers day two: Target (TGT)

I’m focusing on the retailers this week since they are in the news because of the Thanksgiving and Christmas shopping seasons.  I took a look at Wal-Mart yesterday.  Today I will focus on Target (TGT).

Targets share price in November 2001 was about $36.76.  Today it is at $52.54 (42.9% higher).  But this doesn’t take into account the higher prices of goods caused by Federal Reserve money printing otherwise known as price inflation.  Due to the loss of the dollar’s purchasing power that $36.76 in 2001 now takes $47.00 to buy the same amount of goods.  The good news is that Target’s share price has outgrown the government’s stated inflation.  Plus Target paid dividends along the way.  I like Targets past total return more than Wal-Mart’s.

Image004

Target (TGT)

Share price: $52.54

Shares: 671.4 million

Market capitalization: $35.28 billion

Bonds: $17.5 billion outstanding with about $1.2 billion due in 2012.

Image005

DIVIDEND RECORD – Target missed on quarterly dividend in 2006; otherwise, their dividend record is that of a consistent payer and grower.

Image008
Dividend: $0.30 quarterly

Dividend yield: 2.28% ($1.20 annual DIV / $52.54 share price)

Dividend payout ratio: 30% ($1.20 annual DIV / $3.95 avg. adj. EPS) or 27.5% ($1.20/$4.35 latest EPS)

EARNING POWER - $3.95 average adjusted EPS @ 671.4 million shares.  Target has the same earning power per share as Wal-Mart.  What a coincidence!

(earnings adjusted for changes in capitalization – Target has been buying back shares)

                        EPS       Net inc.             Shares               Adj EPS

1/2007              $3.21    $2,787 M           869 M                $4.15

1/2008              $3.33    $2,849 M           851 M                $4.24

1/2009              $2.86    $2,214 M           774 M                $3.30

1/2010              $3.30    $2,488 M           755 M                $3.71

1/2011              $4.00    $2,920 M           729 M                $4.35

Five year average adjusted EPS = $3.95

Consider contrarian buying below $31.60 (8 times avg. adj. EPS)

Consider value buying below $47.40 (12 times avg. adj. EPS)

Target is trading at 13.3 times avg. adj. EPS

Consider speculative selling above $79.00 (20 times avg. adj. EPS)

BALANCE SHEET – Target’s balance sheet is stagnant just like Wal-Mart’s.  A flat shareholder’s equity is really a loss in equity when you factor in price inflation.

Image012

Book value per share: $21.44 TTM

Price to book value ratio: 2.45 (Okay, but not good)

Current ratio: 1.38 latest qtr (over 2.0 is good)

Quick ratio: 0.57 latest qtr (over 1.0 is good)

CONCLUSION -  March 2009 was the last good time to buy Target (TGT).  The company has a decent dividend grower record that appears safe.  It earns $3.95 per share on average (same as Wal-Mart) and only trades at 13.3 times this average.  But its balance sheet is stagnant.  You will have another opportunity to buy Target below $31.60 when the worldwide recession returns and all stocks get hammered.  The dividend yield will increase to 5% @ $24.00 share price.  This assumes that TGT holds its dividend steady at $0.30.  They have sufficient earnings to do this.

Image014

I will examine Amazon.com tomorrow.

DISCLOSURE – I don’t own Target (TGT) stock.

Subscribe today for free at www.myhighdividendstocks.com/feed to discover high dividend stocks with earning power and strong balance sheets.

Be seeing you!

Monday, November 21, 2011

Retailers day one: Wal-Mart (WMT)

Let’s take a look at the largest retailers over the next few days since there is a lot of business coverage of Cyber Monday and Black Tuesday before Thanksgiving in the USA.  Up first is Wal-Mart (WMT).

Wal-Mart’s share price was a little above $54.00 per share 10 years ago.  Unfortunately for all savers and investors, the Federal Reserve has inflated the money supply a lot in the past ten years.  Now it takes $67.98 in 2011 to equal the purchasing power of $54.00 in 2002 according to the government’s own numbers (type: BLS inflation calculator into a google search).  Wal-Mart’s stock price was at $56.66 at the time I wrote this article.  Their inflation adjusted share price is about 26% lower than in 2002.

Image003

Wal-Mart (WMT)

Share price: $56.66

Shares: 3.45 billion

Market capitalization: $195.32 billion

Bonds: $57.1 billion outstanding with a good chunk coming due in 2013-2016.

Image005

DIVIDEND RECORD – Measly dividend yield.  Spotty in 2010, but Wal-Mart appears to be a decent dividend grower.  Their dividend dates appear to move around a bit.  They aren’t equally spaced on the Google Finance dividend chart.

Image009

Dividend: $0.37 per quarter

Dividend yield: 2.61%  ($1.48 annual DIV / $56.66 share price)

Dividend payout ratio: 37.5% ($1.48 annual DIV / $3.95 avg adj EPS) or 31.4% ($1.48 / $4.70 TTM EPS)  They should stop buying back shares and payout more of their earnings in the form of dividends.

EARNING POWER -  $3.95 per share @ 3.450 billion shares

(earnings adjusted for changes in market capitalization – Wal-Mart has been buying back shares for the past five years)

                        EPS       Net inc.             Shares               Adj EPS

1/2007              $2.71    $11,284 M         4,168 M             $3.27

1/2008              $3.13    $12,731 M         4,072 M             $3.69

1/2009              $3.39    $13,400 M         3,951 M             $3.88

1/2010              $3.70    $14,335 M         3,877 M             $4.16

1/2011              $4.47    $16,389 M         3,670 M             $4.75

Wal-Mart’s five year average adjusted earning power is $3.95 per share

Consider contrarian buying below $31.60 (8 times average adj. EPS)

Consider value buying below $47.40 (12 times average adj EPS)

Consider speculative selling above $79.00 (20 times average adj EPS)

BALANCE SHEET – Wal-Mart has a stable balance sheet.  I’d like to see them pay off debts to strengthen their balance sheet.  Share holder equity has gone nowhere in five years (inflation adjusted).  According to the BLS Inflation Calculator $61.573 B in 2007 has the same purchasing power as $67.238 B in 2011.  Wal-Mart’s share holder equity is $67.941 as of July 2011.  Its gone nowhere.

Image012

Book value per share: $19.69  ($67.941 billion equity / 3,450 billion share)

Price to book value ratio:  2.87 (Okay, but not good)

Current ratio: 0.86 (over 2.0 is good)

Quick ratio: 0.13 (over 1.0 is good)

CONCLUSION – Wal-Mart (WMT) is still priced for investment at 14.3 times it five year average adjusted earnings.  The company pays a small dividend that they have grown despite some gaps in their dividend payment history.  Its balance sheet is stable, but not strong.  There are many other investments with higher dividend yields, better prices for more earning power, and stronger balance sheets.  You will have an opportunity to buy Wal-Mart below $47.40 as you plainly see in the chart below.  Wal-Mart dividend yield would only improve to 3.1% if the stock price dropped to $47.70.  It is a long way away from a high dividend stock.

Image013

I will look at Target tomorrow and then Amazon.com on Wednesday.

DISCLOSURE – I don’t own Wal-Mart stock.

Subscribe today for free at www.myhighdividendstocks.com/feed to discover high dividend stocks with earning power and strong balance sheets.

Be seeing you!

Sunday, November 20, 2011

Entrepreneurship with Fiat Property by Hans-Hermann Hoppe

Image001

[The following is the text of a speech first delivered at the Edelweiss Holdings Symposium held in Zurich, Switzerland, on September 17, 2011.]

Let me begin with a brief description of what a capitalist-entrepreneur does, and then explain how the job of the capitalist-entrepreneur is changed under statist conditions.

What the capitalist does is this: He saves (or borrows saved funds), hires labor, buys or rents capital goods and land, and he buys raw materials. Then he proceeds to produce his product or service, whatever it may be, and he hopes that he will make a profit.

Profits are defined simply as an excess of sales revenue over the costs of production. The costs of production, however, do not determine the revenue. If the cost of production determined price and revenue, everyone could be a capitalist. No one would ever fail. Rather, it is anticipated prices and revenues that determine what production costs the capitalist can possibly afford.

The capitalist does not know what the future prices will be or what quantity of his product will be bought at such prices. This depends on the consumers, and the capitalist has no control over them. The capitalist must speculate what the future demand for his products will be, and he can go wrong in his speculation, in which case he does not make profits but will incur losses instead.

To risk your own money in anticipation of an uncertain future demand is obviously a difficult task. Great profits may await you, but so also may total financial ruin. Few people are willing to take this risk, and even fewer are good at it and stay in business for any length of time.

In fact, there is even more to be said about the difficulty of being a capitalist.

Every capitalist stands in permanent competition with every other one for the invariably limited amounts of money to be spent on their goods and services by consumers. Every product competes with every other product. Whenever consumers spend more (or less) on one thing, they must spend less (or more) on another. Even if a capitalist has produced a successful product and earned a profit, there is nothing that guarantees that this will go on. Other businessmen can imitate his product, produce it more cheaply, underbid his price and outcompete him. To prevent this, every capitalist must thus continuously strive to lower his production costs. Yet even trying to produce whatever you produce ever more cheaply is not enough.

The set of products offered by various capitalists is in constant flux, and so is the evaluation of these products by consumers. Continuously new or improved products are offered on the market and consumer tastes constantly change. Nothing remains constant. The uncertainty of the future facing every capitalist never disappears. There is always the lure of profits but also the threat of losses. Again, then, it is very difficult to be continuously successful as a businessman and not to sink back to the rank of an employee.

In all of this there is only one thing that the businessman can count on and take for granted, and that is his real, physical property — and even that is not safe, as we will see.

His real property comes in two forms. First, there are the physical resources, the means of production, including labor services, that the capitalist has bought or rented for some time and that he combines in order to produce whatever he produces. The value of all of these items is variable, as already explained. It depends ultimately on consumer evaluations. What is stable about them is only their physical character and capability. But without this physical stability of his productive property the capitalist could not produce what he produces.

Second, besides his productive property, the capitalist can count on his ownership of real money. Money is neither a consumer good nor a producer good. It is the common medium of exchange. As such, it is the most easily and widely sold good. And it is used as the unit of account. In order to calculate profit and loss, the capitalist needs recourse to money. The input factors and the output, his products to be produced, are incommensurable, like apples and oranges. They are made commensurable only insofar as they can all be expressed in terms of money. Without money, economic calculation is impossible, as Ludwig von Mises above all has explained. The value of money, too, is variable, like the value of everything else. But money, too, has physical characteristics. It is commodity money, such as gold or silver, and money profits are reflected in an increase in the supply of this commodity, gold or silver, at the disposal of the capitalist.

What can be said, then, about both the capitalist's means of production and his money, is this: their physical characteristics do not determine their value, but without their physical characteristics, they would have no value at all, and changes in the physical quality and quantity of his property do affect the value of his property, whatever other factors (such as changing consumer evaluations) may affect the value of his property also.

Now let me introduce the state and see how it affects the business of the capitalist.

The state is conventionally defined as an institution that possesses a territorial monopoly of ultimate decision making in every case of conflict, including conflicts involving the state and its agents itself, and, by implication, the right to tax — i.e., to unilaterally determine the price that its subjects must pay to perform the task of ultimate decision making.

To act under these constraints — or rather, lack of constraints — is what constitutes politics and political action, and it should be clear from the outset that politics, then, by its very nature, always means mischief.

More specifically, we can make two interrelated predictions as to the effect of a state on the business of business. First, and most fundamentally, under statist conditions real property will become what may be called fiat property. And secondly and more specifically, real money will be turned into fiat money.

First, with the state being the ultimate arbiter in every case of conflict including those in which it is involved itself, the state has essentially become the ultimate owner of all property. In principle, it can provoke a conflict with a businessman and then decide against him by expropriating him and making itself (or someone of its liking) the owner of the businessman's physical property. Or else, if it doesn't want to go as far, it can pass legislation or regulations that involve only a partial expropriation. It can restrict the uses that the businessman can make of his physical property. Certain things the businessman is no longer permitted to do with his property.

The state cannot increase the quality and quantity of real property. But it can redistribute it as it sees fit. It can reduce the real property at the disposal of businessmen or it can limit the range of control that they are allowed over their property; and it can thereby increase its own property (or that of its allies) and increase its own range of control over existing physical things.

The businessmen's property, then, is their property in name only. It is granted to them by the state, and it exists only as long as the state does not decide otherwise. Constantly, the sword of Damocles is hanging over the heads of businessmen. The execution of their business plans is based on their assumption of the existence, at their disposal, of certain physical resources and their physical capabilities, and all of their value speculations are based on this physical basis being given. But these assumptions about the physical basis can be rendered incorrect at any time — and their value calculations vitiated as well — if only the state decides to change its current legislation and regulations.

The existence of a state, then, heightens the uncertainty facing the businessman. It makes the future less certain than would be the case otherwise. Realizing this, many people who might otherwise become businessmen will not become businessmen at all. And many businessmen will see their business plans spoiled — not because they did not correctly anticipate future consumer demand, but because the physical basis, on which their plan was based, was altered by some unexpected and unanticipated change in state laws and regulations.

Second, rather than meddling with a businessman's productive capital through confiscation and regulation, however, the state prefers to meddle with money. Because money is the most easily and widely salable good, it allows the state operators the greatest freedom to spend their income as they like. Hence the state's preference for money taxes, i.e., for confiscating money income and money profits. Real money becomes subject to confiscation and changing rates of confiscation. This is the first sense in which money becomes fiat money under statist conditions. People own their money only insofar as the state allows them to keep it.

But there is also a second, even more perfidious, way in which money becomes fiat money under statist conditions.

States everywhere have discovered an even smoother way of enriching themselves at the expense of productive people: by monopolizing the production of money and replacing real, commodity money and commodity credit with genuine fiat money and fiat or fiduciary credit.

On its territory, per legislation, only the state is permitted to produce money. But that is not sufficient. Because as long as money is a real good, i.e., a commodity that must be costly to produce, there is nothing in it for the state except expenses. More importantly, then, the state must use its monopoly position in order to lower the production cost and the quality of money as close as possible to zero. Instead of costly, quality money such as gold or silver, the state must see to it that worthless pieces of paper, which can be produced at practically zero cost, will become money.

Under competitive conditions — i.e., if everyone is free to produce money — a money that can be produced at zero cost would be produced up to a quantity where marginal revenue equals marginal cost. And since marginal cost is zero the marginal revenue, i.e., the purchasing power of this money, would be zero as well. Hence, the necessity to monopolize the production of paper money, so as to be able to restrict its supply, in order to avoid hyperinflationary conditions and the disappearance of money from the market altogether (and a flight into "real values") — and the more so the cheaper the money commodity.

Having monopolized the production of money and reduced its production cost and quality to virtually zero, the state has made a marvelous accomplishment. It costs almost nothing to print money and one can turn around and buy oneself something really valuable, such as a house or a Mercedes.

What are the effects of such fiat money, and in particular what are the effects for the business of business? First and in general, more paper money does not in the slightest affect the quantity or quality of all other, nonmonetary goods. Rather, what the additional money does is twofold. On the one hand, money prices will be higher than they would otherwise be and the purchasing power per unit of money will be lower. And secondly, with the injection of additional paper money existing wealth will be redistributed in favor of those receiving and spending the new money first and at the expense of those receiving and spending it later or last.

And specifically regarding the capitalist, then, paper money adds another dose of uncertainty to his business. If and as long as money is a commodity, such as gold or silver, it may not be exactly "easy" to predict the future supply and purchasing power of money. However, based on information about current production costs and industry profits, it is very well possible to come up with a realistic estimate. In any case, the task is not pure guesswork. And while it is conceivable that, with gold or silver as money, nominal money profits may not always equal "real" profits, it is at least impossible that a nominal profit should ever amount to nothing at all. There is always something left: quantities of gold or silver.

In distinct contrast, with paper money, the production of which is unconstrained by any kind of natural (physical) limitations (scarcity) but dependent solely on subjective whim and will, the prediction of the future money supply and purchasing power does become guesswork. What will the money printers do? And it is not just conceivable but a very real possibility that nominal money profits will turn out to represent literally nothing but bundles of worthless paper.

Moreover, hand in hand with fiat money comes fiat or fiduciary credit, and this creates still more uncertainty.

If the state can create money out of thin air it also can create money credit out of thin air. And because it can create credit out of thin air, i.e., without any previous savings on its part, it can offer cheaper loans than anyone else, at below-market rates of interest, even at rates as low as zero. The interest rate is thus distorted and falsified, and the volume of investment will become divorced from the volume of savings. Systematic malinvestment is thus generated, i.e., investment unbacked by savings. An unsustainable investment boom is set in motion, necessarily followed by a bust, revealing large-scale clusters of entrepreneurial errors.

Last but not least, under statist conditions, i.e., under a regime of fiat property and fiat money, the character of businessmen and of doing business is changed, and this change introduces another hazard into the world.

Absent a state, it is consumers that determine what will be produced, in what quality and quantity, and who among businessmen will succeed or fail. With the state, the situation facing businessmen becomes entirely different. It is now the state and its operators, not consumers, who ultimately decide who will succeed or fail. The state can keep any businessman alive by subsidizing him or bailing him out; or else it can ruin anyone by deciding to investigate him and find him in violation of state laws and regulations.

Moreover, the state is flush with taxes and fiat money and can spend more money than anyone else. It can make any businessman rich (or not). And the state and its operators have a different spending behavior than normal consumers. They do not spend their own money, but other people's money, and in most cases not for their own, personal purposes, but for those of some anonymous third parties. Accordingly, they are frivolous and wasteful in their spending. Neither the price nor the quality of what they buy is of great concern to them.

In addition, the state can go into business itself. And because it doesn't have to make profits and avoid losses, as it can always supplement its earnings through taxes or made-up money, it can always outcompete any private producer of the same or similar goods or services.

And finally, by virtue of its ability to legislate, to make laws, the state can grant exclusive privileges to some businesses, insulating or shielding them from competition, and by the same token partially expropriate and disadvantage other businesses.

In this environment, it is imperative for every businessman to pay constant and close attention to politics. In order to stay alive and possibly prosper, he must spend time and effort to concern himself with matters that have nothing to do with satisfying consumers, but with power politics. And based on his understanding of the nature of the state and of politics, then, he must make a choice: a moral choice.

$15.00 $14.00

He can either join in and become a part of the vast criminal enterprise that is the state. He can bribe politicians, political parties or public officials, whether with cash or in kind (including promises of future employment in the "private" sector as "board-members," "advisors," or "consultants"), in order to gain for himself economic advantages at the expense of other businesses. That is, he can pay bribes to secure state contracts or subsidies for himself and at the exclusion of others. Or he can pay bribes for the passing or maintenance of legislation that secures him and his business legal privileges and monopoly profits (and capital gains) while partially expropriating and thus screwing his competitors. Needless to say, countless businessmen have chosen this path. In particular big banking and big industry have thus become intricately involved in the state, and many a wealthy businessman has made his fortune more on account of his political skills than his abilities as a consumer-serving economic entrepreneur.

Or else, a businessman can choose the honorable but at the same time also the most difficult path. This businessman is aware of the nature of the state. He knows that the state and its operators are out to get him and bully him, to confiscate his property and money and, even worse, that they are arrogant, self-righteous, haughty, and full of themselves. Based on such understanding, this very different breed of businessman then tries his best to anticipate and adjust to the state's every evil move. But he does not join the gang. He does not pay bribes to secure contracts or privileges from the state. Instead, he tries as well as he can to defend whatever is still left of his property and property rights and make as large profits as possible in doing so.

Hans-Hermann Hoppe, an Austrian School economist and anarchocapitalist philosopher, is professor emeritus of economics at UNLV, a distinguished fellow with the Ludwig von Mises Institute, and founder and president of The Property and Freedom Society. Send him mail. See Hans-Hermann Hoppe's article archives.

This article, originally published at LewRockwell.com, is the text of a speech first delivered at the Edelweiss Holdings Symposium held in Zurich, Switzerland, on September 17, 2011.

You can subscribe to future articles by Hans-Hermann Hoppe via this RSS feed.

You can receive the Mises Dailies in your inbox. Subscribe or unsubscribe.


Link to original Mises Daily Article: http://mises.org/daily/5817/Entrepreneurship-with-Fiat-Property

Subscribe today for free at www.myhighdividendstocks.com/feed to discover high dividend stocks with earning power and strong balance sheets.

Be seeing you!